Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef23…8e72 crypto 112 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate71%79W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day58.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -0.2% -9.7% 71% 48% -11.9%
≤30d 112 -0.2% -9.7% 71% 48% -11.9%
≤90d 112 -0.2% -9.7% 71% 48% -11.9%
all 112 -0.2% -9.7% 71% 48% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 48% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 35% -20.4%
15% -26.2% 25% -28.1%
20% -33.5% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses79 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day58.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records