Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef24…a44d crypto 689 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,866 (-11%) realized −$7,858 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%300W / 386L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$68
14 days−$687
30 days−$751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$3,540
crypto 27% −$4,014
world 17% +$273
finance 16% +$591
sports 6% +$935
politics 1% +$317
tech 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 29% -17.1%
≤30d 214 -2.9% -12.1% 42% 37% -23.7%
≤90d 612 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 36% -18.7%
all 686 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 38% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 38% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 31% -24.1%
15% -30.8% 25% -31.5%
20% -37.6% 21% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$51 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$7,858
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses300 / 386
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)686 / 689
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$106
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? No 61¢ 57¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $106 −$5 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$2 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $180 −$90 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $131 +$11 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$14 -68%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -86%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $17 −$14 -79%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$17 -54%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $31 +$23 +72%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $10 +$39 +377%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $53 −$51 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $42 +$22 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$13 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $31 +$34 +111%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $57 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$22 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +125%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $124 −$93 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $94 +$27 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $135 −$105 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $18 −$17 -96%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 09 $21 −$4 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $74 −$70 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $79 −$62 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $53 −$37 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $106 −$100 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $32 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$13 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $47 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 61¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 21¢ $101 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 92¢ $142 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 84¢ $131 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $106 36h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $74 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 47¢ $52 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 7¢ $4 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $17 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $32 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $54 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.76 · official $63.41 · 3500 history records