Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef25…24c8 crypto 324 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$630 (+4%) realized +$569 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate77%245W / 74L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$40
14 days+$115
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$69
other 30% +$238
tech 22% +$135
finance 5% −$40
sports 2% +$81
world 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.1% -3.1% 78% 78% -3.4%
≤30d 80 +11.4% +0.8% 80% 79% -2.0%
≤90d 319 +5.6% -4.5% 77% 53% -6.7%
all 319 +5.6% -4.5% 77% 53% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 53% -6.7%
10% -13.6% 37% -15.6%
15% -22.0% 20% -23.8%
20% -29.6% 10% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$24 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$569
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses245 / 74
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)319 / 324
History coverage55d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 22? Down 0¢ 86¢ $0 $30 +$30 (+0%)
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Down 0¢ 76¢ $0 $29 +$29 (+0%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Down 83¢ 90¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? Down 84¢ 90¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 22? Up 83¢ 80¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$9 +37%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$11 +22%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -96%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $42 −$41 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $116 +$25 +21%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$9 +37%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$14 +54%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$15 +59%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +59%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$18 +51%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$9 +37%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$15 +59%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $51 −$25 -49%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$22 +43%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$8 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +39%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$3 +23%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +39%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$4 +30%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$24 -94%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$14 -56%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$8 +31%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$6 +24%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$12 +47%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $66 +$24 +37%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $76 −$37 -48%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$9 +17%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$6 +21%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $84 +$9 +11%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $96 −$51 -53%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $26 +$14 +54%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $65 +$11 +17%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $51 +$21 +41%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $101 +$24 +24%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$12 +24%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $30 +$18 +58%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$10 +50%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $25 +$5 +21%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $25 +$10 +39%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $51 +$18 +35%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $50 +$14 +27%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$4 +44%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $25 +$8 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $25 +$6 +24%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $25 +$7 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 71¢ $25 1h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 66¢ $25 1h
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 4¢ $1 3d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 73¢ $25 4d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 65¢ $17 4d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 77¢ $25 4d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 82¢ $25 4d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 72¢ $25 4d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 81¢ $50 4d
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 0¢ $0 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 86¢ $91 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 70¢ $25 5d
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 77¢ $25 5d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 72¢ $25 5d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 64¢ $25 5d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 55¢ $25 5d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 65¢ $35 6d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 49¢ $15 6d
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 62¢ $25 6d
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 62¢ $3 6d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 87¢ $25 6d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 62¢ $25 6d
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 84¢ $25 6d
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 72¢ $25 6d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 80¢ $25 6d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 79¢ $50 7d
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 81¢ $13 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.45 · official $137.00 (match) · 1171 history records