Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef26…ccff
crypto · 12 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$46 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$116
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 3 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 68¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+40%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 44¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$10 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$35
crypto 27% −$21
sports 18% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 1m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 50¢ $45 10m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 18m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.5% -24.4% 33% 11% -23.2%
≤30d 9 -16.5% -24.4% 33% 11% -23.2%
≤90d 9 -16.5% -24.4% 33% 11% -23.2%
all 9 -16.5% -24.4% 33% 11% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 11% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 11% -30.5%
15% -38.3% 11% -37.2%
20% -44.3% 11% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.98 · official $115.98 (match) · 31 history records