Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef26…05ba sports 285 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$108,785 (-22%) realized −$111,280 · open +$2,495
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%97W / 556L
Whale WR13%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,755per market
Trades / day97.0pace
Fees−$9,331est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$25,950
other 1% +$4,339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-67.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 406 -97.2% -97.5% 1% 1% -98.3%
≤30d 593 -68.8% -71.8% 13% 13% -75.0%
≤90d 653 -63.8% -67.2% 15% 15% -69.9%
all 653 -63.8% -67.2% 15% 15% -69.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.2% 15% -69.9%
10% -70.4% 15% -72.8%
15% ← realistic here -73.2% 14% -75.4%
20% -75.8% 14% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 13% (≥$2,580) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,326 vs −$1,915 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$6,303
Realized−$111,280
Unrealized+$2,495
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses97 / 556
Whale WR (big bets)13%
Est. fees paid−$9,331
Open positions3
Markets (closed)653 / 285
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$1,755
Trades / day97.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 653 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 60¢ $562 $4,145 +$3,582 (+637%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 100 Thieves 56¢ 69¢ $1,738 $2,156 +$419 (+24%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 34¢ 0¢ $1,508 $2 −$1,506 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,407 −$1,407 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $5,283 −$5,283 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,669 −$1,669 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Sea Jun 21 $2,008 −$2,008 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $724 −$724 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 21 $1,860 −$1,860 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $3,649 −$3,649 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,298 −$1,298 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic Jun 21 $1,232 −$1,232 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Jun 21 $3,691 −$3,695 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,669 −$1,669 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2,241 −$2,251 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 21 $2,585 −$2,585 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Jun 21 $2,144 −$2,144 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $2,506 −$2,506 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 21 $2,704 −$2,678 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $4,255 −$4,255 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs 33 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifi Jun 21 $1,424 −$1,424 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,542 −$1,542 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $7,408 −$7,408 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,452 −$1,452 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,979 −$1,979 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,655 −$1,655 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washington vs CSDIILIT (BO3) Jun 21 $1,485 −$1,485 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2,336 −$2,336 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Jun 21 $2,152 −$2,152 -100%
LoL: RMD Gaming vs Ei Nerd Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Jun 21 $2,184 −$2,184 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $250 −$250 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,928 −$1,928 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 21 $6,674 −$6,674 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Jun 21 $1,136 −$1,136 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,413 −$2,413 -100%
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 21 $2,616 −$2,616 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 21 $1,542 −$1,542 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $3,684 −$3,684 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $2,081 −$2,081 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Jun 21 $2,867 −$2,601 -91%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 21 $3,280 −$3,340 -102%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 21 $3,703 −$3,703 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2,575 −$2,575 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,058 −$2,058 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Jun 21 $209 −$209 -100%
Heat vs. Timberwolves Jun 21 $1,971 −$1,971 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) Jun 21 $1,655 −$1,655 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,393 −$2,393 -100%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Jun 21 $3,391 −$3,391 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $261 −$251 -96%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,306 −$2,306 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $1,760 7m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $26 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $97 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 13¢ $37 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 42¢ $1,369 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $22 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $103 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $631 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $200 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $9 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $59 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $1 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $9 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $9 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $165 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $1 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $15 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $3 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $8 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $8 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $15 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $20 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $15 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $10 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $13 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $38 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $60 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $45 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $54 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,302.97 · official $6,303.28 (match) · 3500 history records