Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EF 0xef27…90b5 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate72%38W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +5.1% -4.9% 72% 57% -12.3%
≤30d 53 +5.1% -4.9% 72% 57% -12.3%
≤90d 53 +5.1% -4.9% 72% 57% -12.3%
all 53 +5.1% -4.9% 72% 57% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 57% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 43% -20.7%
15% -22.3% 32% -28.4%
20% -29.9% 19% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$57 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses38 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage2d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$16 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $206 +$135 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$157 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $181 +$41 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$42 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$37 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $121 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$34 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$15 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $126 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $206 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $154 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $341 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $261 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records