Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef2e…10c3 weather 903 markets active 3h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,134 (-48%) realized −$2,123 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%427W / 443L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day59.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$46
14 days−$83
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$711
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 318 -8.4% -17.1% 46% 45% -14.7%
≤30d 735 -4.3% -13.4% 52% 52% -15.1%
≤90d 870 -5.5% -14.5% 49% 49% -23.7%
all 870 -5.5% -14.5% 49% 49% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 49% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 47% -31.0%
15% -30.2% 46% -37.7%
20% -37.0% 42% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$2,123
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses427 / 443
Open positions33
Markets (closed)870 / 903
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day59.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 870 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 98¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+767%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 18? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+73%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +555%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +421%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +123%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 16 $0 $0 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.77 · official $25.93 (match) · 3500 history records