Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef2e…3ee3
weather · 558 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$144 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$124 · open +$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,064
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses436 / 24
Open positions98
Markets (closed)460 / 558
History coverage41d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 98 History 460 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$102
14 days+$121
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? No 98¢ 96¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? No 91¢ 95¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? No 95¢ 96¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 11 Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$149
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 38m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June SELL No 72¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 84¢ $27 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 91¢ $18 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 92¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 91¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? SELL No 87¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 90¢ $18 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $19 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 77¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 78¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 +1.5% -8.1% 93% 4% -8.0%
≤30d 455 +1.6% -8.1% 95% 3% -8.0%
≤90d 460 +1.5% -8.1% 95% 3% -8.0%
all 460 +1.5% -8.1% 95% 3% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 3% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -16.8%
15% -25.0% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,064.17 · official $2,063.72 (match) · 1314 history records