trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 40% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 36% | 9% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 36% | 9% | -8.2% |
| all | 26 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 54% | 4% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.5% | 4% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -17.2% | 0% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -25.2% | 0% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -32.6% | 0% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 67¢ | 66¢ | $45 | $45 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-23%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $84 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $42 | $0 | -1% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $31 | +$5 | +17% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 08 | $36 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $76 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards | Mar 15 | $125 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 27 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 07 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Solana reach $300 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Apr 28 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | Apr 12 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 21 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will another coalition form the next German Government? | Mar 21 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? | Mar 18 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Solana above $145 on March 14? | Mar 15 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 11? | Mar 13 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000.00 by March 31? | Mar 11 | $14 | $0 | -3% |