Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

EF 0xef32…00f9 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$517 (+20%) realized +$520 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate75%18W / 6L

Drawdown30%max

Avg bet$102per market

Trades / day23.6pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit84%portable

Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+19.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+32.3%	+19.7%	75%	62%	+13.4%
≤30d	24	+32.3%	+19.7%	75%	62%	+13.4%
≤90d	24	+32.3%	+19.7%	75%	62%	+13.4%
all	24	+32.3%	+19.7%	75%	62%	+13.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover23.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+19.7%	62%	+13.4%
10% ← realistic here	+8.3%	62%	+2.6%
15%	-2.2%	54%	-7.3%
20%	-11.8%	38%	-16.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +51% → late +14% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$58 vs −$76 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$197

Realized+$520

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses18 / 6

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage2d

Avg bet$102

Trades / day23.6

Drawdown30%

Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$200	$197	−$3 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 18	$206	+$114	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 18	$202	+$18	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 18	$101	+$8	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 18	$204	−$200	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Jun 18	$204	+$82	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 18	$204	+$71	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$6	+24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$151	−$63	-41%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$102	+$131	+128%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$102	+$103	+101%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$61	+$5	+8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime?	Jun 18	$47	−$46	-98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime?	Jun 17	$153	+$196	+128%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$151	−$114	-76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$51	+$60	+118%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$81	+$35	+43%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime?	Jun 17	$51	+$88	+172%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$38	−$23	-60%
Argentina leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$30	+$35	+114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$80	+$53	+66%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$10	+$13	+123%
France to score first vs. Senegal?	Jun 16	$50	+$22	+44%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$35	+$13	+37%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$320	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$206	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	SELL Up	78¢	$220	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$202	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$109	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$204	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$287	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$204	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$275	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$204	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	SELL Up	57¢	$32	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$26	2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	41¢	$89	15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$232	15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$204	15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	51¢	$66	16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	37¢	$47	17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$61	17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	BUY Over	49¢	$102	17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	68¢	$151	17h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$348	22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	19¢	$37	22h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	43¢	$153	23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	75¢	$151	23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$111	23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$116	23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$139	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.88 · official $196.88 (match) · 48 history records