Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xef33…1c75 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+25%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$32
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 67% +27.2%
≤30d 3 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 67% +27.2%
≤90d 3 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 67% +27.2%
all 3 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 67% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 67% +27.2%
10% -20.0% 67% +15.1%
15% -27.7% 67% +3.9%
20% -34.8% 0% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +41% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$3 · ×5.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.13 per $1 lost it wins $11.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$18 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 +$14 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $39 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.37 · official $48.37 (match) · 6 history records