Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xef33…6be3 sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$922 (+6%) realized +$1,340 · open −$418
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate68%63W / 30L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$810
7 days+$206
14 days+$928
30 days+$928
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% +$707
sports 37% +$105
other 13% −$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +1.4% -8.2% 67% 39% -7.6%
≤30d 93 +1.0% -8.6% 68% 37% -3.2%
≤90d 93 +1.0% -8.6% 68% 37% -3.2%
all 93 +1.0% -8.6% 68% 37% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 37% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 24% -12.5%
15% -25.3% 15% -21.0%
20% -32.7% 12% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$64 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,234
Realized+$1,340
Unrealized−$418
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses63 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions10
Markets (closed)93 / 103
History coverage9d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $634 $646 +$12 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? No 87¢ 59¢ $488 $331 −$157 (-32%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Corners Over 82¢ 66¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 79¢ 100¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 86¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Over 59¢ 21¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-64%)
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $200 $1 −$199 (-99%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 86¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,002 +$77 +8%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $50 +$9 +17%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $253 +$133 +53%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$56 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $501 +$26 +5%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $301 +$25 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$15 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$42 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $20 +$35 +172%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$13 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $100 +$15 +15%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $252 +$77 +31%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $30 +$21 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $200 +$15 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $603 +$112 +19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $150 +$13 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $151 −$135 -89%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 −$68 -68%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 −$112 -74%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $82 −$63 -78%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $21 +$122 +596%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $201 +$52 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$34 +34%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 +$16 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $149 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $50 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $30 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Corners BUY Over 82¢ $101 2h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $50 2h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $50 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $342 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $10 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $24 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $500 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $40 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $802 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $202 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY No 85¢ $50 14h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 75¢ $50 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 92¢ $301 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $30 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $20 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 17h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,234.12 · official $1,234.12 (match) · 231 history records