Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xef34…1d61 crypto 835 markets active 0h ago coverage 300d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 299d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,131 (+4%) realized +$1,164 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%416W / 391L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,733now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$296
14 days+$311
30 days+$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$1,101
other 26% +$797
sports 23% +$711
finance 5% +$109
politics 4% +$106
world 2% −$14
tech 2% +$38
culture 1% +$61
economics 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +26.7% +14.6% 69% 67% +7.9%
≤30d 66 +18.1% +6.8% 67% 62% +4.2%
≤90d 121 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 50% -9.6%
all 807 +11.2% +0.6% 52% 47% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 47% -7.1%
10% -9.0% 42% -16.0%
15% -17.8% 34% -24.1%
20% -25.9% 25% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$1,733
Realized+$1,164
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses416 / 391
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions27
Markets (closed)807 / 835
History coverage300d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 807 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 62¢ $214 $246 +$32 (+15%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $137 $161 +$24 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 74¢ $122 $148 +$26 (+21%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $140 $144 +$4 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 28¢ $220 $142 −$78 (-35%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 24¢ $125 $106 −$18 (-15%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $71 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 76¢ $42 $65 +$23 (+55%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $49 $65 +$16 (+32%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 57¢ 69¢ $53 $65 +$12 (+22%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 60¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 56¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+8%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $46 $54 +$8 (+17%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 52¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $34 $43 +$9 (+25%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $42 $42 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 40¢ $59 $40 −$19 (-32%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 37¢ 12¢ $45 $15 −$30 (-66%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 43¢ 20¢ $22 $10 −$12 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $22 −$14 -66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $63 +$33 +53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $8 +$4 +57%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $51 +$19 +38%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $20 −$4 -21%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $38 +$14 +38%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $40 −$11 -27%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $32 −$16 -49%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$21 +21%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $65 +$19 +29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 −$20 -44%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $34 +$16 +48%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 +$7 +18%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
England to win the second half? Jun 17 $5 +$18 +376%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 +$11 +14%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -82%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$4 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 +$11 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$9 +16%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $23 −$6 -27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$20 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $40 +$18 +45%
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $145 +$34 +23%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$9 +45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$7 -37%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $23 +$13 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$5 -16%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $53 +$22 +41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$24 +119%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 +$4 +29%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 +$12 +14%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$30 -57%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $138 +$62 +45%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $138 −$11 -8%
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $74 +$7 +10%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $14 +$6 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 28m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 28m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 31m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $60 32m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 20¢ $10 43m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 52m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 11¢ $7 55m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $44 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $22 2h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 3h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 4h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 60¢ $12 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 37¢ $8 5h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $33 7h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 32¢ $1 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 32¢ $2 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 32¢ $13 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 90¢ $27 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $30 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 85¢ $25 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 69¢ $14 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 24h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 24h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Qatar 36¢ $29 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,733.09 · official $1,729.29 (match) · 3500 history records