Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:15:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

EF 0xef37…2a23 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%4W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$16

7 days+$10

14 days+$13

30 days−$18

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)+6.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+8.9%	-1.5%	25%	25%	-4.9%
≤30d	14	+17.2%	+6.1%	29%	29%	-14.3%
≤90d	14	+17.2%	+6.1%	29%	29%	-14.3%
all	14	+17.2%	+6.1%	29%	29%	-14.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.1%	29%	-14.3%
10%	-4.1%	29%	-22.5%
15%	-13.4%	29%	-30.0%
20%	-21.8%	29%	-36.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late +24% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$20 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.91 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$78

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses4 / 10

Open positions2

Markets (closed)14 / 16

History coverage17d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	42¢	44¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	28¢	32¢	$22	$25	+$3 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Jun 29	$34	−$16	-48%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 26	$27	+$73	+269%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 25	$31	−$25	-82%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 25	$16	−$11	-69%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 24	$15	−$14	-96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Jun 23	$17	+$53	+301%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Jun 22	$43	−$42	-98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Jun 22	$7	−$7	-96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$12	+$48	+381%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 15	$31	−$31	-98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 15	$14	−$14	-96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$68	−$14	-21%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$34	−$21	-62%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$5	+$4	+72%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	28¢	$22	13m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	13¢	$7	17m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	17¢	$10	37m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	28¢	$11	1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	28¢	$22	1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	42¢	$13	1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	42¢	$38	1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL Yes	6¢	$6	3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	SELL Yes	5¢	$5	4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	16¢	$6	5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$22	5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$6	5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$31	5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	14¢	$15	5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	24¢	$17	6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	60¢	$43	6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$7	6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$12	13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	51¢	$31	13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	23¢	$14	13d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	55¢	$54	16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$9	16d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	9¢	$9	16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	11¢	$10	16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	SELL Yes	14¢	$2	16d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.07 · official $78.07 (match) · 37 history records