Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EF 0xef39…9307 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%55W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$16
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$16
other 24% +$19
politics 22% +$18
sports 11% −$24
finance 2% −$10
crypto 1% −$2
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.5% -10.9% 18% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 35 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 50 -3.2% -12.4% 40% 4% -9.7%
all 120 -3.4% -12.6% 46% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses55 / 65
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage472d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $146 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $245 −$2 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $137 −$3 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $286 +$1 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $491 −$2 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $259 −$12 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $33 −$4 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $184 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $166 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $168 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $169 +$3 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $164 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $148 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $6 +$1 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $162 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $61 +$4 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $158 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $264 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $468 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $319 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $287 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $145 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$4 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $221 −$4 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $156 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $166 −$4 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $93 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $104 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $405 −$1 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $151 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $133 +$20 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $81 +$8 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $107 −$12 -11%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $256 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1,056 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $499 −$4 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,054 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $990 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $73 −$24 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $84 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $148 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $19 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $129 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $146 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $21 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $21 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $146 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $147 46h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $124 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $41 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $96 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $137 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $136 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $39 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $66 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $81 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $81 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $108 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $110 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $43 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $47 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.16 · official $29.54 (match) · 456 history records