Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

EF 0xef39…c2ab crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$67 (-10%) realized −$82 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%11W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day37.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-30.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-23.4%	-30.7%	52%	52%	-28.0%
≤30d	21	-23.4%	-30.7%	52%	52%	-28.0%
≤90d	21	-23.4%	-30.7%	52%	52%	-28.0%
all	21	-23.4%	-30.7%	52%	52%	-28.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover37.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-30.7%	52%	-28.0%
10% ← realistic here	-37.3%	24%	-34.9%
15%	-43.4%	24%	-41.2%
20%	-48.9%	14%	-47.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +8% → late -52% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$65

Realized−$82

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses11 / 10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day37.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	61¢	80¢	$50	$65	+$15 (+30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Jun 24	$21	+$13	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 24	$42	−$15	-36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 24	$21	+$8	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 24	$6	−$6	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 24	$157	+$26	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 24	$16	−$15	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET	Jun 24	$16	−$2	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 24	$53	−$53	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 24	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 24	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 24	$73	−$73	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 24	$25	+$5	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 24	$25	−$25	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$1	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$15	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 24	$25	+$4	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$1	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 24	$25	+$3	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$24	+94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 24	$27	−$27	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 24	$5	+$2	+37%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$51	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$21	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$21	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	SELL Down	62¢	$24	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$21	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	SELL Up	23¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	SELL Up	35¢	$55	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	SELL Down	55¢	$72	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	SELL Down	39¢	$57	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET	SELL Up	20¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$16	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$51	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$25	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$25	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$25	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.16 · official $43.85 · 51 history records