Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef3a…dc6b sports 1208 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,362 (-4%) realized −$2,298 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%605W / 595L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$569est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$89
14 days−$2,788
30 days−$1,941
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1,412
other 20% −$505
crypto 19% −$560
world 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 47% -13.6%
≤30d 362 -12.5% -20.9% 45% 41% -21.3%
≤90d 1200 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 45% -13.2%
all 1200 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 45% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 38% -21.5%
15% -30.1% 29% -29.1%
20% -36.9% 23% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$29 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$2,298
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses605 / 595
Est. fees paid−$569
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1200 / 1208
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Under 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 40¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 45¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $61 +$24 +40%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $19 −$10 -54%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $67 −$62 -93%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $26 −$24 -92%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $28 +$22 +78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -84%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$52 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$22 +78%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $48 +$42 +88%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$30 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $66 +$24 +37%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $42 +$58 +139%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $54 +$32 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $52 +$39 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $58 +$37 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $34 −$14 -43%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $66 +$33 +51%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $52 +$32 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$29 -71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$45 -92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $43 +$31 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$13 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $35 +$22 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $88 −$60 -68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$45 +96%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $42 +$18 +44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54 −$31 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $54 −$49 -91%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $82 −$32 -39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $82 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $73 +$24 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $33 −$30 -92%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $149 +$20 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $33 −$3 -10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $88 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$17 +83%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $48 −$24 -51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $95 −$13 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 −$5 -91%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $9 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $86 4m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $85 7m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $61 34m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $41 35m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 13¢ $13 35m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 51¢ $50 46m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $9 52m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $19 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 5¢ $5 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Qatar 4¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $49 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 2¢ $2 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $5 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $4 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $17 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $28 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $10 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $46 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $67 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 6¢ $1 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 36¢ $4 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 50¢ $49 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 27¢ $28 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 90¢ $90 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 55¢ $55 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $25 32h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $48 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.60 · official $84.60 (match) · 3500 history records