Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

EF 0xef3a…1eb3 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$151 (+35%) realized −$16 · open +$167

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$143per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-14.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-6.0%	-14.9%	0%	0%	-16.0%
≤30d	2	-6.0%	-14.9%	0%	0%	-16.0%
≤90d	2	-6.0%	-14.9%	0%	0%	-16.0%
all	2	-6.0%	-14.9%	0%	0%	-16.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.9%	0%	-16.0%
10%	-23.1%	0%	-24.1%
15%	-30.5%	0%	-31.4%
20%	-37.3%	0%	-38.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$8 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$371

Realized−$16

Unrealized+$167

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$143

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo	Xi Luo	55¢	100¢	$204	$371	+$167 (+82%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox	Jun 17	$10	$0	-5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves	Jun 17	$212	−$16	-7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo	BUY Xi Luo	55¢	$206	1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox	SELL Atlanta Braves	53¢	$10	1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves	SELL San Francisco Giants	45¢	$197	1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves	BUY San Francisco Giants	47¢	$101	1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves	BUY San Francisco Giants	47¢	$112	1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox	BUY Atlanta Braves	54¢	$10	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.78 · official $370.78 (match) · 6 history records