Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef3a…b72e crypto 641 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$179 (-1%) realized −$183 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate58%372W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day85.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$107
14 days+$188
30 days−$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$440
weather 47% +$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +0.5% -9.0% 95% 7% -8.1%
≤30d 576 -9.2% -17.9% 58% 16% -11.3%
≤90d 638 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 19% -10.9%
all 638 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 19% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 19% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 14% -19.5%
15% -28.8% 7% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses372 / 266
Open positions3
Markets (closed)638 / 641
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day85.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 21? No 88¢ 100¢ $29 $32 +$4 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $102 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $120 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $175 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $95 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $51 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $78 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $136 +$14 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $38 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $22 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $118 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 19 $64 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $94 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $101 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $98 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $68 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $118 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 21? BUY Yes 86¢ $77 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $55 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $176 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $52 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 93¢ $120 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $127 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $54 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $175 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $98 23h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 24h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $95 26h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $51 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.78 · official $35.32 (match) · 3500 history records