Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef3b…5af6 other 585 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$586 (-0%) realized −$602 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate80%464W / 114L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$420
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$278
crypto 16% −$161
tech 7% +$15
sports 2% +$49
culture 2% −$2
weather 2% −$21
politics 1% −$888
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.9% -10.3% 52% 52% -12.9%
≤30d 127 -6.5% -15.4% 70% 31% -15.9%
≤90d 219 -3.0% -12.3% 81% 20% -11.2%
all 578 -0.8% -10.3% 80% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 8% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 4% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 3% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized−$602
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses464 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions7
Markets (closed)578 / 585
History coverage203d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ 80¢ $47 $81 +$34 (+73%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 54¢ 72¢ $47 $63 +$15 (+32%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $50 $52 +$3 (+6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 36¢ 78¢ $8 $18 +$10 (+115%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 76¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $96 +$43 +45%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee Jun 23 $4 +$1 +28%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4 +$1 +24%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $49 +$18 +37%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $25 −$1 -5%
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $50 +$32 +64%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $49 +$116 +236%
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $10 +$20 +193%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $4 +$1 +20%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $51 +$40 +79%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova Jun 23 $43 $0 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek Jun 23 $9 −$4 -42%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov Jun 23 $50 +$25 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 23 $4 +$2 +52%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $51 +$40 +78%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi Jun 23 $33 +$7 +21%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $99 −$53 -53%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 −$27 -55%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $51 +$86 +167%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $54 −$17 -31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $39 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $28 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $23 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $403 −$403 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ $48 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $48 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 76¢ $6 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 36¢ $8 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $47 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $41 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $48 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $48 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $27 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 77¢ $4 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $4 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $39 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $10 6h
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Radu Albot 49¢ $4 7h
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Radu Albot 49¢ $46 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 45¢ $31 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Viktoriya Tomova 63¢ $13 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 49¢ $12 8h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 43¢ $36 8h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 43¢ $15 8h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.59 · official $315.59 (match) · 1479 history records