Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef3e…0e40 crypto 768 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$190 (-1%) realized −$186 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate76%577W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$322
14 days−$296
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$206
sports 10% −$192
other 4% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 50% -17.9%
≤30d 75 -3.9% -13.0% 52% 52% -15.8%
≤90d 401 -5.6% -14.6% 71% 59% -20.5%
all 763 -1.8% -11.1% 76% 70% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 70% -11.1%
10% -19.6% 43% -19.6%
15% -27.4% 15% -27.4%
20% -34.5% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$29 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses577 / 186
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions5
Markets (closed)763 / 768
History coverage120d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 763 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 56¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $76 +$45 +60%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $36 +$39 +109%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $61 −$31 -52%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 +$43 +57%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $36 +$64 +180%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 +$34 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $71 +$48 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $46 +$36 +79%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$9 +29%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $96 +$80 +83%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $45 +$19 +42%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$40 -195%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $60 +$18 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$26 +172%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $91 −$180 -197%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $45 +$18 +40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$30 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 +$18 +79%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $37 +$40 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 +$16 +42%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 +$34 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $54 +$33 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $46 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $35 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $96 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $41 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $30 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $76 22h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $56 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $36 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $46 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $46 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 35¢ $36 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $76 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $56 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $71 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $15 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $30 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.11 · official $431.14 (match) · 1662 history records