Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef49…d27b
weather · 90 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$24 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$442
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 41
Open positions17
Markets (closed)73 / 90
History coverage7d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 17 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 84¢ 88¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 69¢ 62¢ $73 $66 −$7 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 14? No 96¢ 95¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 95¢ 97¢ $37 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 86¢ 81¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 93¢ 98¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 79¢ 92¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 90¢ 81¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 54¢ 73¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 97¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $90 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $37 +$8 +21%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $124 +$48 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $51 +$27 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $5 −$5 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $40 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 8? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% −$13
crypto 3% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $6 2m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 52¢ $8 4m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 49¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $14 16m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 55¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 75¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 72¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 97¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 99¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 76¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 72¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 72¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 69¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 98¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 95¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 58¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 57¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -42.3% -47.8% 44% 19% -12.6%
≤30d 73 -42.3% -47.8% 44% 19% -12.6%
≤90d 73 -42.3% -47.8% 44% 19% -12.6%
all 73 -42.3% -47.8% 44% 19% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.8% 19% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -52.8% 7% -21.0%
15% -57.4% 7% -28.6%
20% -61.6% 1% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.74 · official $441.74 (match) · 311 history records