Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef4b…de86
crypto · 1141 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$132 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$219 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses775 / 365
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1140 / 1141
History coverage71d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$76
14 days+$7
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 47¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+113%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 62¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$13 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 +5.4% -4.6% 42% 42% -3.2%
≤30d 553 -0.6% -10.0% 46% 46% -9.1%
≤90d 1140 -1.9% -11.2% 68% 34% -11.8%
all 1140 -1.9% -11.2% 68% 34% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 34% -11.8%
10% -19.7% 27% -20.2%
15% -27.5% 22% -27.9%
20% -34.6% 18% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.87 · official $14.15 (match) · 2001 history records