Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef4f…4598 sports 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-2%) realized −$81 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$780
14 days−$139
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$1,471
other 35% +$1,247
crypto 4% +$21
world 2% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.2% -13.3% 48% 43% +13.0%
≤30d 70 -12.4% -20.7% 44% 34% -12.3%
≤90d 70 -12.4% -20.7% 44% 34% -12.3%
all 70 -12.4% -20.7% 44% 34% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 34% -12.3%
10% -28.3% 33% -20.7%
15% -35.3% 30% -28.4%
20% -41.6% 30% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 56% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$61 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 39
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage13d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $112 $109 −$3 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Over 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $60 +$52 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 +$5 +79%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $149 −$45 -30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $93 −$91 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -99%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $81 +$52 +64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $59 +$102 +172%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $81 +$54 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 +$29 +67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $109 +$101 +93%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $471 +$1,148 +244%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $82 +$25 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $113 −$111 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $97 +$53 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 +$52 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $34 −$34 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $68 −$67 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $232 −$200 -86%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $63 +$50 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $176 +$100 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $72 +$55 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $80 +$103 +128%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $170 +$49 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $42 −$6 -15%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $41 +$59 +145%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $125 −$123 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 +$7 +441%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $9 +$5 +57%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $501 −$500 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $52 −$51 -97%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $31 +$58 +188%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $13 −$12 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $112 9m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $114 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $60 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2¢ $9 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 16h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $62 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $5 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $41 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $98 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $102 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $7 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $93 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $30 23h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY No 42¢ $8 23h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 13¢ $2 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $133 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $81 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $7 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $161 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $135 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $81 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $59 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $71 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $210 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $43 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $109 2d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $1,620 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.39 · official $109.39 (match) · 130 history records