Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef50…e3bd sports 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12,970 (+2%) realized +$15,294 · open −$2,324
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%44W / 50L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,854per market
Trades / day66.6pace
Fees−$4,404est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$5,939now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$34,153
other 39% +$16,986
crypto 7% −$12,605
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -8.0% -16.8% 31% 23% -56.1%
≤30d 24 -33.3% -39.6% 25% 21% -42.7%
≤90d 94 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 46% -14.1%
all 94 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 46% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 46% -14.1%
10% -23.7% 45% -22.3%
15% ← realistic here -31.1% 41% -29.8%
20% -37.8% 38% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$5,419) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
29.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,885 vs −$5,728 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$5,939
Realized+$15,294
Unrealized−$2,324
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses44 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$4,404
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$5,854
Trades / day66.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $8,263 $5,939 −$2,324 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11,486 −$11,184 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $405 −$397 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21,604 −$21,055 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,455 −$1,163 -80%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14,392 −$14,255 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,891 +$3,937 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5,419 +$30,568 +564%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $14,844 +$147 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $4,305 −$4,305 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $17,853 −$17,853 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19,978 +$21,820 +109%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $60,261 −$60,261 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 12 $33,166 −$33,166 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 21 $9,608 −$9,608 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 21 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 21 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 21 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 21 $511 −$511 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 21 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 21 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 21 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 21 $11,636 −$11,636 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $30,497 +$36,826 +121%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $319 +$272 +85%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3,315 +$2,522 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $1,012 +$653 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 17 $1,011 +$575 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $1,035 +$1,327 +128%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $1,011 +$546 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $1,513 +$597 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $1,012 +$626 +62%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $9,996 +$9,669 +97%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $2,304 +$1,683 +73%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $5,452 −$5,026 -92%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3,107 +$1,271 +41%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $14,294 +$7,779 +54%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10,115 +$4,191 +41%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $204 −$204 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $9,836 −$9,824 -100%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $203 −$203 -100%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $202 −$202 -100%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $436 +$112 +26%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $509 +$805 +158%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $202 +$131 +64%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $204 +$351 +172%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 10 $185 −$185 -100%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 10 $42,846 +$36,499 +85%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 10 $440 −$440 -100%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 10 $1,023 −$918 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $8,471 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,484 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $56 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $8,945 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $405 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $20,586 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $717 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $288 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $292 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $580 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $43 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $77 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $346 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $311 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $14,392 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7,828 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,938.81 · official $5,938.81 (match) · 3500 history records