Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef51…943a crypto 136 markets active 2d ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$179 (-5%) realized −$179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%55W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days−$360
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$298
crypto 17% −$77
politics 6% −$1
other 3% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 54% -8.6%
≤30d 37 -13.0% -21.2% 46% 43% -24.9%
≤90d 37 -13.0% -21.2% 46% 43% -24.9%
all 135 -16.2% -24.2% 41% 28% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 28% -22.6%
10% -31.4% 25% -30.0%
15% -38.1% 16% -36.8%
20% -44.1% 12% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses55 / 80
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage229d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $70 +$44 +63%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $379 −$39 -10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $38 +$9 +25%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 +$6 +19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 +$29 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $35 +$15 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $106 −$21 -20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $18 +$6 +32%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$30 +150%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $37 −$11 -30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $37 +$39 +106%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $71 +$13 +18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $39 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $291 +$39 +13%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $359 +$31 +9%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $22 −$21 -97%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $29 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $84 −$83 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $499 −$304 -61%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $3 +$3 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 15 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 15 $24 −$13 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11AM ET Mar 15 $8 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 11AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 15 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 15 $12 −$2 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 16? Mar 14 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 16? Mar 14 $2 $0 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? Mar 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 17? Mar 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 18? Mar 14 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $7 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 42h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.50 · official $8.50 (match) · 679 history records