Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	No	11¢	0¢	$12,950	$0	−$12,950 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$5,632	$0	−$5,632 (-100%)
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?	No	1¢	0¢	$9,933	$0	−$9,933 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	Oct 29	$5,633	−$5,632	-100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Oct 28	$12,950	−$12,950	-100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?	Jan 21	$9,935	−$9,933	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

politics 45% −$12,950

tech 35% −$9,933

economics 20% −$5,632

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$40	225d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$600	225d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4,993	226d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	BUY No	11¢	$12,950	226d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?	BUY No	0¢	$5,003	507d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?	BUY No	1¢	$4,932	507d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10% ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.