Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef54…4cfd
other · 98 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$35 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses16 / 81
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage125d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 1 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jazz 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Bulls Bulls 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Suns Suns 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Spurs Rockets 34¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $114 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $225 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $123 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $119 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $109 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $119 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $123 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $248 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 06 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $245 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $224 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $377 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $101 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $414 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $268 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $127 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $243 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 03 $129 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $221 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $218 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $253 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% −$18
politics 20% −$2
sports 18% +$56
economics 5% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 2d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $114 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $114 20d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $114 22d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $114 25d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $129 25d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $129 25d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 46d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $129 55d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $129 56d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 56d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 56d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $96 56d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $96 56d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $109 56d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 56d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 57d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $106 57d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 58d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 58d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $125 58d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $125 58d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 59d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 59d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 60d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 60d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $123 60d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $73 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 97 +2.5% -7.3% 16% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 11% -9.3%
10% -16.1% 7% -18.0%
15% -24.2% 4% -25.9%
20% -31.7% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.99 · official $22.99 (match) · 292 history records