Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EF 0xef54…cdc4 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$26 (+86%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$11
other 13% +$6
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +59.4% +44.2% 60% 60% +108.9%
≤30d 6 +32.8% +20.2% 50% 50% +40.1%
≤90d 6 +32.8% +20.2% 50% 50% +40.1%
all 6 +32.8% +20.2% 50% 50% +40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.2% 50% +40.1%
10% +8.7% 50% +26.7%
15% -1.8% 50% +14.5%
20% -11.4% 50% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage17d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +246%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$17 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 23m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $9 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 53¢ $5 23h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records