Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef54…5902 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$87 (-20%) realized −$86 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$8
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$67
sports 20% $0
crypto 4% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -16.2% -24.2% 42% 42% -16.2%
≤30d 26 -20.0% -27.6% 42% 42% -30.4%
≤90d 26 -20.0% -27.6% 42% 42% -30.4%
all 26 -20.0% -27.6% 42% 42% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 42% -30.4%
10% -34.5% 27% -37.0%
15% -40.9% 27% -43.1%
20% -46.7% 19% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)26 / 34
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 67¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $12 −$5 (-28%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+34%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 +$4 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$28 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$9 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$4 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +16%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -6%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $2 41m
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 67¢ $40 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 20h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY 31¢ $10 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 46h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 3d
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $31 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 9d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.30 · official $136.30 (match) · 72 history records