Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef55…e370
politics · 8 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
−$565 -46%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$569 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized−$569
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage585d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 3 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$210
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64 Yes 10¢ 0¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $258 $0 −$258 (-100%)
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 Yes 16¢ 0¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $122 +$211 +172%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $260 −$1 -0%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 Nov 05 $260 −$260 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64 Nov 04 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 04 $258 −$258 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 85% −$780
sports 12% +$211
other 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $122 11d
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104 BUY Yes 16¢ $260 584d
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64 BUY Yes 10¢ $260 585d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 41¢ $258 585d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 58¢ $259 585d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 59¢ $260 585d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +86.0% +68.3% 50% 50% +40.1%
≤90d 2 +86.0% +68.3% 50% 50% +40.1%
all 5 -25.6% -32.7% 20% 20% -53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 20% -53.9%
10% -39.1% 20% -58.3%
15% -45.0% 20% -62.3%
20% -50.4% 20% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.02 · official $58.02 (match) · 11 history records