Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EF 0xef58…1976 other 46 markets active 3h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,566 (-48%) realized −$3,518 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$776now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,571
7 days−$3,571
14 days−$3,571
30 days−$3,571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$3,267
other 16% −$239
sports 16% −$106
tech 3% −$11
world 1% −$33
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -60.7%
≤30d 18 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -60.7%
≤90d 18 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -60.7%
all 26 -27.3% -34.2% 31% 31% -58.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 31% -58.9%
10% -40.5% 31% -62.8%
15% -46.3% 19% -66.4%
20% -51.6% 15% -69.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$229 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$776
Realized−$3,518
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions20
Markets (closed)26 / 46
History coverage332d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $72 $70 −$2 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $63 $61 −$3 (-4%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-63%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$55 +27%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $39 +$49 +127%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $202 +$116 +58%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $3,214 −$2,230 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $205 −$152 -74%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $243 −$156 -64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $132 +$149 +113%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $133 −$101 -76%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $113 −$110 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,423 −$1,038 -73%
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025? Aug 02 $6 −$4 -71%
Will Drake release an album by August 31? Aug 02 $20 +$6 +29%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Aug 02 $110 −$9 -8%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 02 $46 +$11 +24%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Aug 02 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 02 $25 −$6 -23%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? Aug 02 $30 −$13 -42%
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Jul 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No $20 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 63¢ $202 7h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $102 7h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $985 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Under 51¢ $7 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $257 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $39 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $47 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $51 10h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $65 28h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $74 28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $282 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $21 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $43 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $28 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $82 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $21 29h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $103 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $776.27 · official $776.30 (match) · 447 history records