Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xef5a…1b1b other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$13
politics 29% −$12
world 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% +$16
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -3.0% -12.3% 2% 2% -9.8%
all 97 +1.2% -8.4% 8% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.2% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×9.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage115d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $202 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $357 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $340 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $384 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $193 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $344 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $356 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $197 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $152 −$3 -2%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $349 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $347 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $396 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $280 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $405 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $300 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $179 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $409 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $149 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $331 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $347 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $211 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $155 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $339 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $168 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 12d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 13d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $156 21d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $156 24d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $159 25d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $159 25d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $180 25d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $180 25d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $173 25d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $173 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $193 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $209 28d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $209 28d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 28d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 29d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $187 29d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $187 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $197 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 339 history records