Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef5d…d9b5 crypto 309 markets active 10h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate88%266W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$54
14 days+$81
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% +$167
crypto 33% −$135
sports 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.2% -5.8% 91% 9% -7.7%
≤30d 63 +3.5% -6.4% 94% 5% -7.9%
≤90d 148 +0.3% -9.3% 91% 4% -8.9%
all 303 -0.3% -9.8% 88% 16% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 16% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 8% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 5% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses266 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)303 / 309
History coverage200d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19? No 96¢ 98¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? No 92¢ 88¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 87¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? No 89¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $80 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $28 +$12 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $220 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $190 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $195 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $200 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 −$15 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $195 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 02 $140 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 1? Jun 01 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 31? Jun 01 $180 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 30? May 30 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $40 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 29? May 29 $160 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $100 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $40 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 BUY 64¢ $19 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $81 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $102 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $200 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY 70¢ $28 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $80 33h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $100 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $224 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $220 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $192 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $204 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $190 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $200 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $102 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $202 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $200 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 97¢ $109 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $150 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $53 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $170 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.65 · official $383.65 · 698 history records