Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef62…0179 other 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 674d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,697 (-4%) realized −$6,638 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate59%91W / 62L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$970per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$3,280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$382
14 days−$329
30 days−$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$718
politics 18% −$4,020
world 16% −$103
economics 12% −$196
crypto 8% −$127
tech 4% −$1,774
finance 4% +$81
sports 3% −$23
weather 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.1% -17.8% 33% 8% -15.1%
≤30d 37 -5.2% -14.2% 38% 8% -11.6%
≤90d 84 -14.6% -22.8% 50% 7% -16.5%
all 153 -6.9% -15.8% 59% 10% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 10% -13.7%
10% -23.8% 5% -22.0%
15% -31.2% 3% -29.5%
20% -37.9% 2% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$163 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

674d coverage
Net worth$3,280
Realized−$6,638
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses91 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)153 / 158
History coverage674d
Avg bet$970
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 89¢ 78¢ $1,602 $1,395 −$207 (-13%)
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,296 $1,362 +$66 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 84¢ $237 $305 +$68 (+28%)
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $108 $120 +$12 (+11%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $95 $99 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 17 $266 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $574 −$28 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,000 +$126 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $516 +$42 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1,221 −$15 -1%
US military draft authorized in 2026? Jun 12 $435 +$16 +4%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$11 -23%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 11 $480 −$476 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $1,184 −$34 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $381 $0 +0%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1480+? Jun 10 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 08 $50 −$6 -12%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 05 $1,092 −$49 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $2,485 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1,768 +$22 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $536 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $154 +$84 +55%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $403 +$1 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31? Jun 01 $176 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 31? May 30 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $1,500 −$122 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $722 −$91 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,720 +$180 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 28? May 30 $112 +$88 +79%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 27? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? May 27 $60 −$12 -20%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? May 27 $146 −$29 -20%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 26 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May? May 26 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 26 $260 −$55 -21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? May 26 $12 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1,532 −$56 -4%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 25 $74 −$8 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $158 −$4 -3%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $402 +$36 +9%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $494 −$22 -4%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 16 $1,349 −$253 -19%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? May 14 $347 −$35 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 13 $180 +$10 +6%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 13 $500 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 09 $396 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 08 $900 +$2 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? May 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? May 08 $180 $0 +0%
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30? May 08 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $91 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 65¢ $192 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $546 9h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 33¢ $72 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 67¢ $201 14h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 14h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,280.29 · official $3,280.29 (match) · 1058 history records