Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef62…cf76 sports 473 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,469 (-1%) realized −$2,509 · open −$9,960
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%154W / 316L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,602per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$28,880est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$463,619
world 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -24.0% -31.2% 34% 26% -25.9%
≤30d 143 -36.9% -42.9% 31% 27% -36.4%
≤90d 470 -33.9% -40.2% 33% 26% -35.6%
all 470 -33.9% -40.2% 33% 26% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.2% 26% -35.6%
10% -45.9% 22% -41.7%
15% ← realistic here -51.1% 18% -47.4%
20% -55.9% 14% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$4,900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,733 vs −$2,281 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$6,632
Realized−$2,509
Unrealized−$9,960
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses154 / 316
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$28,880
Open positions3
Markets (closed)470 / 473
History coverage76d
Avg bet$4,602
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner 4ikibamboni 43¢ 34¢ $8,292 $6,619 −$1,673 (-20%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Inner Circle 42¢ 0¢ $6,420 $8 −$6,412 (-100%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Inner Circle 20¢ 0¢ $1,880 $5 −$1,875 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 197 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $4,025 +$1,456 +36%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $11,434 +$956 +8%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $8,104 +$4,332 +54%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $206 −$200 -97%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $1,361 +$123 +9%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $1,649 −$399 -24%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $306 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $5,280 −$4,572 -87%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $2,614 −$1,001 -38%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $911 −$900 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $2,739 −$812 -30%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $658 −$641 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $10,142 −$5,000 -49%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $2,988 +$1,386 +46%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $14,081 −$10,479 -74%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $2,431 −$1,121 -46%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $2,659 −$1,560 -59%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $917 −$900 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $1,250 +$1,318 +106%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $510 −$500 -98%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $4,308 −$1,029 -24%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $4,774 −$3,001 -63%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $513 −$500 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $5,115 +$921 +18%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $8,573 +$1,503 +18%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $6,939 −$617 -9%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $4,393 −$488 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $123 −$120 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 $0 -37%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,282 −$110 -9%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,756 −$109 -6%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,105 −$19 -1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $918 +$1,419 +155%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 17 $1,826 +$738 +40%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $205 −$201 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $12 +$7 +60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $16,234 −$16,232 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 08 $2 +$1 +62%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $8,187 −$3,792 -46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10,863 +$6,439 +59%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3,062 −$3,001 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $13,039 −$4,135 -32%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,319 −$115 -9%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3,144 +$2,776 +88%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $21,478 −$13,638 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 43¢ $2,034 9m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 50¢ $1,015 14m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 46¢ $2,032 15m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 49¢ $38 15m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 42¢ $2,035 16m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 37¢ $1,279 20m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 16¢ $1,025 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 27¢ $899 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 33¢ $1,448 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 56¢ $3,040 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 35¢ $1,019 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 34¢ $1,020 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 8¢ $103 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 19¢ $410 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 65¢ $1,011 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 65¢ $1,011 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $255 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 70¢ $404 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 51¢ $406 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 41¢ $427 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 37¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 41¢ $1,018 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $305 17h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $305 17h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $306 17h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 59¢ $1,012 17h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $1,015 17h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 51¢ $1,015 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,631.60 · official $6,633.52 (match) · 3179 history records