Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xef65…f32f sports 1702 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$547 (-1%) realized −$543 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%998W / 689L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$375est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$147
14 days+$28
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$498
other 44% −$338
world 2% −$129
economics 2% +$173
politics 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 45% -22.0%
≤30d 380 +0.9% -8.7% 49% 49% -8.7%
≤90d 1265 -10.4% -19.0% 47% 44% -25.4%
all 1687 -0.8% -10.2% 59% 53% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 53% -10.6%
10% -18.8% 40% -19.2%
15% -26.6% 33% -27.0%
20% -33.8% 29% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$28 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$543
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses998 / 689
Est. fees paid−$375
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1687 / 1702
History coverage233d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1687 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 53¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 49¢ 52¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 44¢ 46¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 35¢ 36¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 46¢ 46¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ 39¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 46¢ 46¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 45¢ 44¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 42¢ 42¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 40¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 34¢ 34¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 349 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $8 +$8 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $8 +$13 +158%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $8 +$8 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $8 +$6 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $8 +$10 +119%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $8 +$11 +140%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $8 +$6 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $8 +$9 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $8 +$10 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $8 +$4 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $8 +$9 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $8 +$8 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $8 +$8 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $8 +$8 +93%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $51 +$6 +12%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 +$13 +124%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $41 +$9 +23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $15 +$9 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $15 +$15 +101%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $15 +$11 +70%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $8 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $8 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $8 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $8 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $8 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $8 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $8 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $8 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $8 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $8 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $8 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $8 26h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $8 26h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $8 26h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $8 26h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $8 26h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $8 26h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $8 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $8 26h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $8 26h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $8 26h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $8 26h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 45¢ $8 26h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $8 26h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $8 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $8 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $8 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $8 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $8 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.87 · official $133.87 (match) · 3204 history records