Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef6b…2b89 world 97 markets active 3h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate52%50W / 47L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$12
other 21% +$14
sports 21% −$3
politics 16% −$3
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
economics 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 37 +9.9% -0.5% 43% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 49 +7.7% -2.6% 41% 4% -9.6%
all 97 +7.1% -3.1% 52% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 10% -9.4%
10% -12.3% 5% -18.0%
15% -20.8% 5% -26.0%
20% -28.6% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses50 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage488d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $59 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $174 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -28%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $172 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $108 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $175 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $157 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $168 −$7 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $499 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $179 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $179 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $163 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $163 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $161 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $345 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $302 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $512 −$3 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $177 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $105 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $336 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $368 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $176 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $15 +$2 +12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $341 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $7 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $317 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $153 −$3 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $164 +$14 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $342 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $70 +$2 +2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $62 +$2 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,817 −$3 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $915 −$17 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $915 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,006 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $926 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $184 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 09 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $59 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $19 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $172 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $172 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $172 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $172 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $108 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $108 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $173 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $175 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $89 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $89 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $159 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $91 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $66 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $151 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.00 (match) · 364 history records