Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef74…0275 crypto 1414 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$274 (-6%) realized −$274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%801W / 516L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day104.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$967
7 days−$568
14 days+$195
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 819 -21.9% -29.4% 49% 48% -27.8%
≤30d 1317 +2.6% -7.2% 61% 60% -7.7%
≤90d 1317 +2.6% -7.2% 61% 60% -7.7%
all 1317 +2.6% -7.2% 61% 60% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 60% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 60% -16.5%
15% -24.2% 56% -24.6%
20% -31.6% 41% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses801 / 516
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1317 / 1414
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day104.6
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1317 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.03 (match) · 3500 history records