Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef76…038d other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-24%) realized −$61 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$15
sports 43% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -51.2% -55.8% 20% 20% -51.0%
≤30d 5 -51.2% -55.8% 20% 20% -51.0%
≤90d 5 -51.2% -55.8% 20% 20% -51.0%
all 5 -51.2% -55.8% 20% 20% -51.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.8% 20% -51.0%
10% -60.1% 20% -55.7%
15% -63.9% 20% -60.0%
20% -67.5% 0% -63.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 42¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $53 −$21 -40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$13 -59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$10 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 15m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $32 37m
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $53 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $26 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.77 · official $19.77 (match) · 10 history records