Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef78…6f15 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$440 (-20%) realized −$438 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$439
world 35% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -29.5% -36.2% 0% 0% -31.0%
≤90d 7 -29.5% -36.2% 0% 0% -31.0%
all 7 -29.5% -36.2% 0% 0% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 0% -31.0%
10% -42.3% 0% -37.6%
15% -47.9% 0% -43.7%
20% -53.0% 0% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$63 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$326
Realized−$438
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage15d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $328 $326 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 28 $331 −$1 -0%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $314 −$1 -0%
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Jun 26 $325 −$1 -0%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 14 $69 −$4 -5%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $388 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.80 · official $325.80 (match) · 17 history records