Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xef78…0b70
sports · 510 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$88 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$88 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses396 / 106
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)502 / 510
History coverage85d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 6 History 502 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$70
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? No 95¢ 98¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? No 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 4, 10AM ET? No 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $74 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $15 −$3 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $85 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $18 −$6 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $51 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $8 $0 +2%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $55 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 4, 10AM ET? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $86 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $19 +$2 +9%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $37 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $44 −$6 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $110 −$64 -58%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? May 31 $103 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? May 30 $8 −$4 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? May 30 $10 −$6 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $9 +$2 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 29 $23 −$7 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 29 $10 −$6 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 28 $10 −$7 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $20 −$8 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? May 28 $10 −$3 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $23 +$2 +8%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $11 $0 +4%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $2 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 24 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% −$108
sports 42% +$37
other 2% −$11
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 44¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND BUY 13¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 95¢ $3 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 95¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $2 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 92¢ $5 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $76 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $1 36h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $12 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 69¢ $12 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $39 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $15 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $38 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $65 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $65 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $64 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.8% -13.9% 82% 6% -9.9%
≤30d 67 -12.0% -20.4% 67% 10% -15.7%
≤90d 502 -2.8% -12.0% 79% 14% -10.2%
all 502 -2.8% -12.0% 79% 14% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 14% -10.2%
10% -20.5% 5% -18.8%
15% -28.1% 3% -26.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
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