Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef79…5a56 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
other 30% $0
crypto 10% −$1
politics 9% +$2
sports 7% +$1
tech 5% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 47 -4.8% -13.8% 38% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 2% -9.5%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage461d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $20 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $78 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 14 $2 $0 -28%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 27 $9 $0 -1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 22 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 15 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Draft Lottery? May 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $1 $0 -27%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $2 $0 -3%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 07 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $14 $0 -1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $14 $0 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 22 $12 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $42 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $20 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $20 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $21 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $16 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $4 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $41 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $41 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $36 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $1 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $37 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $38 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $37 27d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $1 344d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $1 344d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL No 94¢ $8 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records