Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef7c…a5c6 other 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$17
politics 26% −$21
other 21% −$27
crypto 8% −$9
economics 7% −$2
finance 5% −$17
culture 3% −$4
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.1% -10.5% 13% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 65 -1.1% -10.5% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -0.8% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.0%
all 145 -0.7% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage108d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha Jun 19 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -9%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $37 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $254 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $166 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $252 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $149 −$2 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $43 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $236 −$3 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $44 −$2 -4%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $48 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $55 −$4 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $101 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 03 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 02 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $242 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $178 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $25 55m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $28 59m
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha SELL No 91¢ $44 1h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 95¢ $46 9h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $47 10h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $47 15h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $60 15h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $60 21h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $10 22h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 26h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $52 27h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 41h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 41h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 45h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $51 46h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $52 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $56 2d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $57 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $69 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $2 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $5 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.69 · official $53.66 (match) · 551 history records