Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xef7c…826f world 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate41%49W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$17
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$22
other 16% −$20
politics 16% −$1
sports 12% +$22
crypto 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +1.0% -8.6% 34% 3% -8.3%
≤90d 73 +9.4% -1.0% 37% 3% -8.8%
all 120 +11.0% +0.4% 41% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 11% -9.0%
10% -9.2% 9% -17.7%
15% -18.0% 9% -25.7%
20% -26.0% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses49 / 71
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage532d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $146 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $53 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $53 −$1 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $36 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $81 +$17 +21%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $26 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $35 +$1 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $67 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $213 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $50 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $83 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $52 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $35 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $18 +$2 +12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $37 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $35 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $88 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $32 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $31 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $52 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $53 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $52 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $30 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $17 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $6 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $54 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $54 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $33 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $27 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $39 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $30 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $8 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $57 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $57 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $0.00 · 416 history records