Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xef7d…be58 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$47 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 44L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$1
politics 26% +$2
world 23% +$35
other 15% +$3
economics 2% $0
finance 1% +$12
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.5% -10.9% 11% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 9% -8.3%
≤90d 31 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 10% -9.0%
all 79 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -9.0%
10% -20.2% 3% -17.7%
15% -27.9% 1% -25.7%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage458d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $333 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $182 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $127 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $540 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $63 −$6 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $181 +$8 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $181 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $159 +$23 +14%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $208 +$5 +2%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $65 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $56 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $140 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $52 +$12 +22%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $54 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $174 −$12 -7%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $20 +$14 +72%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $228 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $1,521 +$10 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $157 −$4 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,209 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $119 +$4 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $317 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,071 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $209 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $788 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Dec 15 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 02 $14 $0 +3%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 27 $1 $0 -34%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $2 $0 +10%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 31 $12 $0 +2%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 24 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Maomao win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $63 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $119 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $182 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $182 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $182 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $57 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $19 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $127 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $111 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $166 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $23 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $60 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $67 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.82 · official $31.82 (match) · 275 history records