Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef7e…f5cd crypto 34 markets active 5h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3466 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,937 (-22%) realized −$1,937 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day3466.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3466 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -21.4% -28.9% 33% 16% -10.4%
≤30d 45 -21.4% -28.9% 33% 16% -10.4%
≤90d 45 -21.4% -28.9% 33% 16% -10.4%
all 45 -21.4% -28.9% 33% 16% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3466.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 16% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.7% 4% -19.0%
15% -41.9% 4% -26.8%
20% -47.6% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
101.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,937
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 34
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$263
Trades / day3466.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $406 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $95 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $346 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $408 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $184 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $298 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $91 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $379 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $299 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $215 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $168 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $338 −$50 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $226 +$28 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $358 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $348 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $164 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $203 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $288 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $241 +$41 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $269 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $372 −$33 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $163 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $446 −$34 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $285 +$36 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $417 −$13 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $282 −$50 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $358 −$31 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $174 +$24 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $306 −$17 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $439 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $219 +$191 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records