Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EF 0xef87…e853 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$350 (-6%) realized −$350 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$430
14 days−$411
30 days−$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 8% -19.4%
≤30d 40 -3.5% -12.7% 65% 15% -17.3%
≤90d 40 -3.5% -12.7% 65% 15% -17.3%
all 40 -3.5% -12.7% 65% 15% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 15% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 10% -25.2%
15% -28.7% 8% -32.4%
20% -35.7% 8% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$44 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$350
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage16d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $37 −$5 -14%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $46 −$28 -62%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $266 −$14 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$37 +367%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $165 +$9 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$9 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $46 +$2 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$24 +119%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $220 −$39 -18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $56 +$1 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$5 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $708 −$143 -20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $238 −$7 -3%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $13 −$5 -39%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $41 −$24 -60%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $624 +$5 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $405 +$15 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $302 +$4 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $102 +$2 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $555 +$14 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $200 +$6 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $274 +$7 +2%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $3 −$2 -73%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $36 +$3 +9%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $150 −$53 -35%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $42 +$4 +8%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $14 +$3 +19%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $25 +$24 +96%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $107 +$34 +31%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $50 +$6 +11%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $30 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $84 +$3 +3%
CDPJuniorFC vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $32 +$2 +7%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $25 +$1 +5%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $80 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $63 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 48¢ $32 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $37 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 11¢ $18 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $5 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $41 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 17¢ $1 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 17¢ $7 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 17¢ $1 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $50 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $67 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $21 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $29 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $27 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 74¢ $22 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 74¢ $3 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $50 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $56 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $50 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $7 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $1 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $1 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $2 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $4 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 29¢ $36 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 344 history records