Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef87…bf2b other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$30 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%39W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$83
other 25% −$179
politics 22% +$20
sports 3% +$8
crypto 2% +$8
weather 2% +$7
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$17
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -47.2% -52.2% 50% 0% -39.3%
≤90d 67 +9.4% -1.0% 57% 7% -9.8%
all 73 +8.4% -1.9% 53% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 7% -9.8%
10% -11.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -19.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -27.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses39 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage95d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes $5 $0 −$4 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 27 $71 +$6 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $121 −$121 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? May 25 $104 +$4 +4%
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film May 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 20 $157 +$4 +2%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this wee May 19 $52 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 15? May 15 $69 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 14? May 14 $87 +$3 +3%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 12 $691 −$1 -0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 12 $9 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $13 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $244 $0 +0%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 11 $515 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $725 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $485 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $434 +$1 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 07 $411 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $8 +$85 +1007%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 20 $358 +$2 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? Apr 20 $165 $0 +0%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 20 $26 −$1 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 19 $7 $0 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $11 −$4 -36%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $340 −$1 -0%
Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Re Apr 14 $160 +$7 +5%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 13 $343 −$2 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $434 +$5 +1%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 13 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $23 $0 +1%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $173 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 09 $27 $0 +1%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 09 $314 +$1 +0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $157 $0 +0%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 07 $1 $0 -22%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 04 $4 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $156 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 03 $156 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $155 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 02 $151 +$4 +3%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Mar 31 $152 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $150 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $1 48m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $87 3h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 14d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? BUY No 96¢ $43 20d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $22 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY No $1 27d
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? BUY No 92¢ $54 28d
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? BUY No 92¢ $17 28d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY Yes 96¢ $45 31d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY Yes 96¢ $59 31d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY No 94¢ $9 32d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY No 94¢ $32 32d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY No 93¢ $30 32d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY No 93¢ $2 32d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $4 33d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 95¢ $51 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 96¢ $102 34d
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this wee BUY No 93¢ $6 35d
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this wee BUY No 93¢ $11 35d
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this wee BUY No 93¢ $34 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.74 · official $88.74 (match) · 375 history records