Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xef88…d62c sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$307 (-2%) realized −$307 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%4W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$425est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$195
14 days−$336
30 days−$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -2.7% -12.0% 13% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 40 -2.3% -11.6% 10% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 42 -2.3% -11.6% 10% 0% -11.8%
all 42 -2.3% -11.6% 10% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -11.8%
10% -20.0% 0% -20.3%
15% -27.8% 0% -28.0%
20% -34.8% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$580) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$307
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses4 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$425
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage30d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $490 −$8 -2%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $98 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $680 −$180 -26%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $630 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $630 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $4 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $194 +$10 +5%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $520 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 14 $630 $0 -0%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $200 −$15 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $143 −$2 -1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $790 −$4 -0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $440 +$2 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $590 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 09 $21 $0 -1%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $343 −$4 -1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $260 −$8 -3%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 08 $440 −$123 -28%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $940 −$20 -2%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BC Game Masters E May 31 $450 $0 -0%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 30 $510 +$2 +0%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $800 −$3 -0%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs May 30 $121 −$7 -6%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu May 30 $680 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $360 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 28 $620 −$10 -2%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoff May 28 $133 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe May 28 $210 $0 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 24 $412 −$5 -1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 23 $520 −$9 -2%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 23 $192 −$3 -1%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 23 $580 −$6 -1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 22 $570 −$7 -1%
Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5) May 21 $550 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 20 $510 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 20 $570 −$8 -1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $530 −$5 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 49¢ $482 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $341 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $140 1h
United States to score first vs. Australia? SELL No 34¢ $5 3h
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY No 34¢ $5 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 46¢ $90 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 46¢ $2 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 46¢ $3 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $98 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 68¢ $680 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 63¢ $477 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 63¢ $585 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 63¢ $22 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 63¢ $22 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 63¢ $22 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 63¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 63¢ $126 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $630 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $630 12h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 28¢ $4 13h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 28¢ $4 13h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 30¢ $205 13h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 28¢ $194 13h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL Dplus 34¢ $10 13h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 34¢ $10 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 52¢ $9 31h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 52¢ $40 31h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 52¢ $7 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records